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Urban Institute's Index Shows Credit Easing Has Room to Increase

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center updated their Housing Credit Availability Index (HCAI) last Friday. The HCAI measures the percentage of owner-occupied home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.

What this index shows is that while credit seems to be easing it is nowhere near pre-crises levels.The study states that “If the current default risk was doubled across all channels, risk would still be well within the pre-crisis standard of 12.5 percent from 2001 to 2003 for the whole mortgage market.” This implies that there is still significant space remaining to safely expand the credit box, something we are seeing as more and more lenders move into non-QM.

The latest HCAI shows that mortgage credit availability increased to 5.85 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018 (Q4 2018), up from the previous quarter (5.75 percent), but still down from peak reached in the first quarter of 2018 (5.89 percent). This quarter’s increase was caused by an increase in risk taken in the portfolio and private-label securities channel. Credit also expanded in both the GSE and government channels, but by a smaller margin.

Mortgage credit availability in the GSE channel—Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac— has been increasing steadily since the financial crisis. Last quarter, Q3 2018, the index reached 3 percent for the first time since 2008, and this quarter, it continued to increase slightly. The government channel (FVR) increased to 11.8 percent, the highest level since 2009. The FVR channel includes the Federal Housing Administration, the US Department of Veterans Affairs, and the US Department of Agriculture’s Rural Development program. The portfolio and private-label securities channel increased to 3.1 percent, but still remains near the record low for the amount of default risk taken.

The HCAI by Channels

GSE Loans

The GSE market has expanded the credit box for borrowers more effectively than the FVR government channel has in recent years. The downward trend of credit availability in the GSE channel began a reversal in Q2 2011. From Q2 2011 to Q4 2018, the total risk taken by the GSE channel has more than doubled, from 1.4 percent to 3.0 percent.

 

Government Loans

The total default risk the government loan channel is willing to take bottomed out at 9.6 percent in Q3 2013. It has fluctuated at or above that number since then. In the past nine quarters starting in Q4 2016, the risk in the government channel has risen significantly from 9.9 to 11.8 percent, the highest level since 2009, but still about half the pre-bubble level of 19 – 23 percent.

Portfolio and Private-Label Securities Loans

The portfolio and private-label securities (PP) channel took on more product risk than the FVR and GSE channels during the bubble. After the crisis, the channel’s product and borrower risks dropped sharply. The numbers have stabilized since 2013, with product risk fluctuating below 0.6 percent and borrower risk around 2.0 percent. Borrower risk increased substantially in the fourth quarter of 2019, driven primarily a decline in FICO scores and an increase in high-LTV lending. Total risk in the PP channel was 3.1 percent in Q4 2019, the highest level since 2012.

 

 

 

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Home Insurance Rates Up As Much As 88% In The Last Decade, Study Finds

QuoteWizard®, a LendingTree company, and one of the nation's leading online insurance marketplaces, today released its report that found natural disasters have dramatically increased home insurance rates in every state around the country.

Every year in the United States, natural disasters account for tens of billions of dollars in damages. A significant portion of those damages falls on the shoulders of insurance companies. When insurance companies experience huge loss from natural disaster-related claims, they compensate for that loss with an increase in home insurance rates.

QuoteWizard looked at the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC'S) 2007 home insurance data and compared it to 2016 for all 50 states to find the home insurance rate increases.

Key Findings:

  • Eleven out of the top 15 states were in the larger Tornado Alley boundaries (OklahomaKansasColoradoNebraskaArkansasLouisianaMinnesotaKentuckySouth DakotaMississippi, and Texas).
  • The average home insurance rate hike for those top Tornado Alley states in the last decade was $580. This was an average increase of 67 percent. In 2016, those states pay on average $1509 per year for home insurance.
  • Other than Rhode Island and Connecticut, the Northeastern states sit lower on rate increases, despite receiving heavy rain, hail, and snowstorms. The average rate increases for New JerseyNew YorkMarylandVirginiaWest VirginiaMaineNew HampshireDelawarePennsylvaniaVermont, and D.C. was $274. This was an average 39 percent increase. These states paid an average of $1008 in 2016.
  • Western states have the lowest rate increases in the country. NevadaCaliforniaAlaskaUtahOregonArizonaHawaiiIdahoWashington are all among the least 30 home insurance rate increase states. The average rate hikes for these states was only $167. This equates to an average 30 percent increase. These states paid an average of $821in 2016.
  • While California has the second lowest rate increases since 2007 (only $75), it already pays some of the highest rates in the country ($1000)Florida pays the most at $1918, but only experienced a $284 spike in the last decade, a 25 percent increase.
Rank
State 2007 Premium 2016 Premium % Increase $ Increase
1 Oklahoma $1,054 $1,875 78% $821
2 Kansas $904 $1,548 71% $644
3 Colorado $826 $1,446 75% $620
4 Nebraska $807 $1,402 74% $595
5 Arkansas $762 $1,348 77% $586
6 Louisiana $1,400 $1,967 41% $567
7 Missouri $726 $1,280 76% $554
8 Rhode Island $950 $1,496 57% $546
9 Minnesota $800 $1,340 68% $540
10 Connecticut $929 $1,455 57% $526
11 Kentucky $578 $1,085 88% $507
12 South Dakota $618 $1,125 82% $507
13 Mississippi $1,019 $1,525 50% $506
14 Texas $1,448 $1,937 34% $489
15 Alabama $905 $1,386 53% $481
16 South Carolina $808 $1,285 59% $477
17 Georgia $724 $1,200 66% $476
18 North Dakota $771 $1,239 61% $468
19 Wyoming $656 $1,120 71% $464
20 Tennessee $723 $1,185 64% $462
21 Montana $700 $1,130 61% $430
22 Massachusetts $1,023 $1,451 42% $428
23 North Carolina $674 $1,098 63% $424
24 New Jersey $776 $1,174 51% $398
25 Florida $1,534 $1,918 25% $384
26 New York $936 $1,309 40% $373
27 Indiana $647 $1,003 55% $356
28 Illinois $700 $1,042 49% $342
29 Iowa $610 $945 55% $335
30 Maryland $692 $1,022 48% $330
31 New Mexico $667 $996 49% $329
32 Washington $506 $822 62% $316
33 Ohio $540 $850 57% $310
34 Virginia $683 $966 41% $283
35 Idaho $422 $703 67% $281
36 Wisconsin $491 $762 55% $271
37 West Virginia $646 $917 42% $271
38 Maine $596 $866 45% $270
39 New Hampshire $699 $965 38% $266
40 Delaware $559 $816 46% $257
41 Pennsylvania $689 $927 35% $238
42 Michigan $721 $952 32% $231
43 Vermont $704 $898 28% $194
44 Hawaii $850 $1,026 21% $176
45 Arizona $634 $803 27% $169
46 Oregon $496 $659 33% $163
47 Utah $505 $664 31% $159
48 D.C. $1,089 $1,225 12% $136
49 Alaska $861 $974 13% $113
50 California $925 $1,000 8% $75
51        Nevada $695 $742 7% $47
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NAR Existing Home Sales Report Shows Sales Down In March

Existing-home sales retreated in March, following February’s surge of sales, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Each of the four major U.S. regions saw a drop-off in sales, with the Midwest enduring the largest decline last month.

Total existing-home sales completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, fell 4.9% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.21 million in March. Sales as a whole are down 5.4% from a year ago (5.51 million in March 2018).

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Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, anticipated waning in the numbers for March. “It is not surprising to see a retreat after a powerful surge in sales in the prior month. Still, current sales activity is underperforming in relation to the strength in the jobs markets. The impact of lower mortgage rates has not yet been fully realized.”

The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $259,400, up 3.8% from March 2018 ($249,800). March’s price increase marks the 85th straight month of year-over-year gains.

Total housing inventory at the end of March increased to 1.68 million, up from 1.63 million existing homes available for sale in February and a 2.4% increase from 1.64 million a year ago. Unsold inventory is at a 3.9-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.6 months in February and up from 3.6 months in March 2018.

“Further increases in inventory are highly desirable to keep home prices in check,” says Yun. “The sustained steady gains in home sales can occur when home price appreciation grows at roughly the same pace as wage growth.”

Properties remained on the market for an average of 36 days in March, down from 44 days in February but up from 30 days a year ago. Forty-seven percent of homes sold in March were on the market for less than a month.

Yun says tax policy changes will likely add further complications to the housing sector. “The lower-end market is hot while the upper-end market is not. The expensive home market will experience challenges due to the curtailment of tax deductions of mortgage interest payments and property taxes.”

Realtor.com®’s Market Hotness Index, measuring time-on-the-market data and listing views per property, revealed that the hottest metro areas in March were Columbus, Ohio; Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.; Midland, Texas; Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade, Calif.; and Stockton-Lodi, Calif.

According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 4.27% in March from 4.37% in February. The average commitment rate across all of 2018 was 4.54%.

“We had been calling for additional inventory, so I am pleased to see that there has been a modest increase on that front,” said NAR President John Smaby, a second-generation Realtor® from Edina, Minnesota and broker at Edina Realty. “We’re also seeing very favorable mortgage rates, so now would be a great time for those buyers who may have been waiting to make a purchase.”

First-time buyers were responsible for 33% of sales in March, up from last month and a year ago (32% and 30%). NAR’s 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers revealed that the annual share of first-time buyers was 33%.

All-cash sales accounted for 21% of transactions in March, down from February’s 23%, but up from a year ago (20%). Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 18% of homes in March, up from February’s 16%, and up from a year ago (16%).

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – represented 3% of sales in March, down from 4% last month and down from 4% in March 2018. One percent of March 2019 sales were short sales.

Single-family and Condo/Co-op Sales

Single-family home sales sit at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.67 million in March, down from 4.91 million in February and down 4.7% from 4.90 million a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $261,100 in March, up 3.8% from March 2018.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were recorded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 540,000 units in March, down 5.3% from last month and down 11.5% from a year ago. The median existing condo price was $244,400 in March, which is up 3.6% from a year ago.

Regional Breakdown

March existing-home sales numbers in the Northeast decreased 2.9% to an annual rate of 670,000, 1.5% below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $277,500, which is up 2.5% from March 2018.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales declined 7.9% from last month to an annual rate of 1.17 million, 8.6% below March 2018 levels. The median price in the Midwest was $200,500, which is up 4.6% from last year.

Existing-home sales in the South dropped 3.4% to an annual rate of 2.28 million in March, down 2.1% from last year. The median price in the South was $227,400, up 2.4% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West fell 6.0% to an annual rate of 1.09 million in March, 10.7% below a year ago. The median price in the West was $389,300, up 3.1% from March 2018.

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