CoreLogic, a global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report. The report shows, nationally, 4% of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure) in February 2019, representing a 0.8 percentage point decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with February 2018, when it was 4.8%. This was the lowest for the month of February in at least 19 years.

As of February 2019, the foreclosure inventory rate – which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from February 2018. The February 2019 foreclosure inventory rate tied the November and December 2018 and January 2019 rates as the lowest for any month since at least January 1999.

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency, as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 2% in February 2019, down from 2.1% in February 2018. The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due in February 2019 was 0.6%, down from 0.7% in February 2018. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.4% in February 2019, down from 2.1% in February 2018. The serious delinquency rate of 1.4% this February was the lowest for that month since 2001 when it was also 1.4%.

Since early-stage delinquencies can be volatile, CoreLogic also analyzes transition rates. The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due was 1% in February 2019, unchanged from February 2018. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2%, while it peaked in November 2008 at 2%.

“The persistently impressive economic expansion continues to drive down housing market distress, with delinquencies and foreclosures hitting near two-decade lows,” said Dr. Ralph McLaughlin, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic. “Furthermore, with unemployment at a 50-year low, wage growth nearing double inflation and a positive demographic structure that will drive housing demand upwards, the future of U.S. housing and mortgage markets look bright even if short term indicators suggest cooling.”

The nation's overall delinquency rate has fallen on a year-over-year basis for the past 14 consecutive months. Fewer delinquencies attribute to the strength of loan vintages in the years since the residential lending market has recovered following the housing crisis. In February, 11 metropolitan areas experienced annual gains – mostly very small – in their serious delinquency rates. The largest gains were in four Southeast metros affected by natural disasters in 2018.

“We are on track to test generational lows as delinquency rates hit their lowest point in almost two decades. Given the economic outlook, we are likely to see more declines over the balance of this year,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Reflective of the drop in delinquency rates, no state experienced a year-over-year increase in its foreclosure inventory rate so far in 2019.”

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Why Support Someone Who Is Trying to Put You Out of Business? This came in from Remax today:

RE/MAX strongly believes the role of a real estate agent in the homebuying and selling process is more important than ever. Consumers faced with the largest, most complex financial transaction of their lives should have a knowledgeable professional to guide and advise them. We believe real estate agents provide this essential service to a successful buying and selling experience.

Given Redfin's recent announcement regarding a program that would encourage buyers not to use agents on listings where the seller is represented by Redfin, we cannot continue with an official, corporate-level relationship at this time. We have begun the process of dissolving our exclusive referral agreement with them beginning today.

The First Step to Rolling Back Regulations? You have to review them before you can roll them back. Today the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) published a notice on how it plans to periodically review regulations under the Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) and to request public input. Additionally, the Bureau published a notice requesting public input as part of its first RFA review examining the 2009 Overdraft Rule.

Originators to Client: "Can I Take Over Your Screen"  Key Mortgage Services Inc recently launched glyde, a loan application platform that provides buyers a faster, easier, and more transparent experience. Glyde completely streamlines the process, and enables users to easily complete their application in about 15 minutes from their desktop or mobile device.Buyers can securely upload important documents using the camera on their phone. And, real-time updates are automatically sent to all important parties — the buyer, buyer’s agent, and seller’s agent — involved in the transaction for complete transparency at every step in the process.

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ATTOM Data Solutions today released its Q1 2019 U.S. Home Equity & Underwater Report, which shows that at the end of the first quarter of 2019, more than 5.2 million (5,223,524) U.S. properties were seriously underwater (where the combined balance of loans secured by the property was at least 25 percent higher than the property’s estimated market value), up by more than 17,000 properties from a year ago.

The 5.2 million seriously underwater properties at the end of Q1 2019 represented 9.1 percent of all U.S. properties with a mortgage, up from 8.8 percent in the previous quarter but down from 9.5 percent in Q1 2018.

“With home prices increasing at a slower pace in 2018, than in previous years, the potential for people to climb out from mortgages that are underwater or advance into equity-rich territory, tends to be reduced,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer at ATTOM Data Solutions. “However, only one in 11 mortgages are seriously underwater today, compared to nearly one in three during the depths of the recession. Although, if the latest trend continues, it will raise another clear signal of a market slowdown, which will be good for buyers, but not so good for sellers. But if the pattern of the past few years takes hold – with levels of underwater and equity rich mortgages turning around – it will mean the market remains strong for sellers, with fewer needing to get out from under financial distress.”

Historical U.S. Underwater & Equity Rich Trends

	US Properties	% Seriously	US Properties	%
Qtr/Year	Serious Underwater	Underwater	Equity Rich	Equity Rich
Q1 2012	12,533,155	27.80%
Q2 2012	12,824,279	28.60%
Q3 2012	12,472,262	27.60%
Q1 2013	10,894,743	25.80%
Q2 2013	11,336,033	25.70%
Q3 2013	10,714,924	23.20%
Q4 2013	9,274,126	18.80%	9,097,325	18.50%
Q1 2014	9,065,741	17.50%	9,935,939	19.10%
Q2 2014	9,074,449	17.20%	9,945,646	18.90%
Q3 2014	8,135,648	15.00%	10,812,968	20.10%
Q4 2014	7,052,570	12.70%	11,249,646	20.30%
Q1 2015	7,341,922	13.20%	11,053,055	19.80%
Q2 2015	7,443,580	13.30%	10,963,041	19.60%
Q3 2015	6,917,673	12.70%	10,476,259	19.20%
Q4 2015	6,436,381	11.50%	12,621,274	22.50%
Q1 2016	6,703,857	12.00%	12,335,651	22.00%
Q2 2016	6,666,622	11.90%	12,383,345	22.10%
Q3 2016	6,063,326	10.80%	13,125,367	23.40%
Q4 2016	5,408,323	9.60%	13,877,315	24.60%
Q1 2017	5,497,771	9.70%	13,718,473	24.30%
Q2 2017	5,433,684	9.50%	14,038,372	24.6%
Q3 2017	4,628,408	8.70%	14,030,394	26.40%
Q4 2017	5,032,185	9.30%	13,731,767	25.40%
Q1 2018	5,206,446	9.50%	13,841,082	25.30%

 

Highest seriously underwater share in Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, West Virginia 

States with the highest share of seriously underwater properties were Louisiana (20.7 percent); Mississippi (17.1 percent); Arkansas (16.3 percent); West Virginia (16.2 percent); and Illinois (16.2 percent).

Among 99 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report, those with the highest share of seriously underwater properties were Baton Rouge, Louisiana (21.3 percent); Scranton, Pennsylvania (20.0 percent); Youngstown, Ohio (19.2 percent); Toledo, Ohio (19.2 percent); and New Orleans, Louisiana (17.8 percent).

32 zip codes where more than half of all properties are seriously underwater

Among 7,639 U.S. zip codes with at least 2,500 properties with mortgages, there were 32 zip codes where more than half of all properties with a mortgage were seriously underwater, including zip codes in the Milwaukee, Trenton, Chicago, Saint Louis, and Cleveland metropolitan statistical areas.

The top five zip codes with the highest share of seriously underwater properties were 53206 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin (70.5 percent seriously underwater); 08611 in Trenton, New Jersey (68.9 percent); 69361 in Scottsbluff, Nebraska (63.4 percent); 60426 in Harvey, Illinois (63.1 percent); and 61104 in Rockford, Illinois (62.8 percent).

Q1 2019 Underwater Properties by ZIP

Highest equity rich share in California, Hawaii, New York, Washington, Vermont

States with the highest share of equity rich properties were California (43.0 percent); Hawaii (38.1 percent); New York (34.2 percent); Washington (33.2 percent); and Vermont (32.8 percent).

Among 99 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed in the report, those with the highest share of equity rich properties were San Jose, California (68.3 percent); San Francisco, California (58.4 percent); Los Angeles, California (48.1 percent); Santa Rosa, California (47.6 percent); and San Diego, California (39.3 percent).

408 zip codes where more than half of all properties are equity rich

Among 7,639 U.S. zip codes with at least 2,500 properties with mortgages, there were 408 zip codes where more than half of all properties with a mortgage were equity rich.

The top five zip codes with the highest share of equity rich properties were all located in the San Jose and San Francisco markets in California: 94040 in Mountain View (82.3 percent equity rich); 94116 in San Francisco (81.7 percent); 94087 in Sunnyvale (81.6 percent); 94085 in Sunnyvale (81.1 percent); and 94122 in San Francisco (81.0 percent).

Q1 2019 Equity Rich Properties by ZIP

Report methodology

The ATTOM Data Solutions U.S. Home Equity & Underwater report provides counts of residential properties based on several categories of equity — or loan to value (LTV) — at the state, metro, county and zip code level, along with the percentage of total residential properties with a mortgage that each equity category represents. The equity/LTV is calculated based on record-level loan model estimating position and balance of loans secured by a property and a record-level automated valuation model (AVM) derived from publicly recorded mortgage and deed of trust data collected and licensed by ATTOM Data Solutions nationwide for more than 155 million U.S. properties.

Definitions

Seriously underwater: Loan to value ratio of 125 percent or above, meaning the property owner owed at least 25 percent more than the estimated market value of the property.

Equity rich: Loan to value ratio of 50 percent or lower, meaning the property owner had at least 50 percent equity.   

 

 

 

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