The housing market will continue to slow in the first six months of 2019, available inventory will rise, and prices will increase, though at a slower rate than has been the case for years, according to Seven Predictions for the Housing Market, a report from Redfin. House-flippers will exit the market, and issues between technology firms and local governments will continue to be problems.

"We predict that the housing market will continue to cool into the first half of 2019," said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather, who authored today's report. "Inventory will return to 2017 levels, and price growth, while likely still positive, will be the lowest we've seen since 2014 or possibly even 2011. Investors and house-flippers will back away from the cooling market, and real estate companies that buy homes from consumers to quickly sell at a profit (including our own RedfinNow) will face their first serious test. Tech companies and local governments will continue to go head to head on local housing issues."

Redfin's seven housing predictions for 2019 are as follows:

1. The housing market will continue to cool: Price growth settling around 3 percent in the first half of the new year, down from 7 percent in the first half of 2018, but there is a real chance prices will fall below 2018 levels. A still-growing economy and increased access to credit will support more homebuyer demand, but higher interest rates will make home-buying more expensive, so it's hard to say whether home sales will stay down or rebound next year.
2. The homeownership rate will continue to rise: Homebuyers will enjoy more inventory and less competition from speculators and house-flippers, which will lead to more people enjoying the benefits of homeownership. Homeownership has been consistently growing from its post-recession valley of 63 percent in 2016 to above 64 percent this year. We predict the homeownership rate will grow more rapidly next year than it did in 2018.
3. It will cost more to borrow, but more people will have access to credit for home-buying: A mortgage-rate increase to 5.5 percent by the end of 2019 from the less than 5 percent level where rates have been hovering in recent months would mean about a $100 increase in monthly mortgage payments on a $300,000 home. Lenders will also feel the effects of rising rates, which will increase their costs of lending and dampen demand for their services. This will motivate lenders to expand their customer base to low-income borrowers and first-time homebuyers. But of course, lenders will charge more for these loans--both to cover the risk of lending to borrowers with less-than-perfect credit and to cover their own costs of borrowing.
4. A cooling housing market will dampen economic growth only slightly: The economy will most likely grow, but a cooler housing market will contribute less to the overall economy. Even if residential investment (which includes money spent on construction, renovations, and real estate commissions) were to fall by 10 percent, total economic activity would be impacted by 1 to 2 percent. That isn't enough to cause a recession as long as the rest of the economy keeps growing.
5. Fewer homes will be built, but more builders will focus on starter homes: Homebuilders will be more cautious about building during a cooling market and focus on building starter homes that are easier to sell than luxury homes. The per-unit value of single-family residential building permits has already flattened, and we predict per-unit values of building permits will decline in 2019. Another factor in 2019 will be low unemployment, which will finally cause wages to rise for low-income workers. This will impact both the supply of and demand for housing. On the supply side, higher labor costs will limit the number of homes built. Meanwhile, higher wages will be a boon to demand for starter-homes among working-class Americans.
6. Institutional buying will face its first serious test: If home-buying demand falters due to higher-interest rates and stock-market volatility, institutional buyers who made money from almost every sale in a rising market with low-interest rates could start to face losses or might demonstrate more discipline than other housing investors. If i-buying works in a bear market as well as it has in a bull market, instant offers could become a major, permanent sector within the real estate economy. If it doesn't, investors will lose money.
7. Tech and local government will go head-to-head on housing: Cities have been struggling with the double-edged sword of tech-company-driven prosperity and inequality. Growing cities will have to start building more housing now if they don't want to face the affordability and homelessness problems that established tech hubs like Seattle and San Francisco face.

ATTOM Data Solutions has integrated expanded boundary data into its U.S. property data.

The expanded boundary data features parcel boundaries for 135 million U.S. parcels along with school attendance zone boundaries for more than 67,000 schools in more than 13,000 school districts and neighborhood boundaries for more than 166,000 neighborhoods.

"Accurate parcel boundaries offer an essential location component that's ideal for property research and we are excited to now include this data as a complement to the foundational tax, deed, mortgage and neighborhood data available in the ATTOM Warehouse," said Rob Barber, CEO of the company.

The parcel boundary data is available in a bulk file format adhering to the industry standard ESRI shape data. ATTOM offers two versions of the parcel boundary data: An essential version that includes the shape file data for the parcel boundaries along with basic tax assessor information for each parcel. Additional assessor information for each parcel includes beds, baths, square footage, year built, lot size and most recent sale date and amount.

These boundary datasets can be combined with each other and with ATTOM's property and neighborhood data to create powerful analytics and applications for end-users.

• Identify which school attendance zone a home is located in.
• Search for all homes within a specific school attendance zone.
• Find neighborhoods that overlap with school district boundaries.
• Create neighborhood profiles based on school scores, crime rates and property characteristics.
• Enable home search according to neighborhood.

[caption id="attachment_8472" align="alignleft" width="240"] Glick: Anticipates a that the first quarter of 2019 will be good.[/caption]

Eric Glick is area sales manager for the Georgia and South Carolina Coastlines and Jacksonville, Fla., markets for New American Funding. So far in 2018, he originated $90 million, or 384 units. In 2017, he originated $92 million, or 431 units. American Funding offers conventional, Veteran Affairs, USDA, jumbo and many other types of loans.

How did you get into the mortgage business?

I was working as a business and accounting recruiting for Robert Half, when a friend recruited me for some opportunities in the mortgage business, and I started with Countrywide Home Loans in 2006.  I took a leap of faith, and it was the best decision I ever made.

How has the skill set of an originator change over the years?

The communication piece has change, but what hasn’t change is the need to treat people like people. Back in the day, we took applications on paper. Now there is technology to which we have to adapt. Borrowers want things now. They want things faster, and they have access to social media, and their whole world are on their phones. If an originator is not in front of that (technology), he’s behind it.

What’s the best advice about being successful in the mortgage business that you’ve ever received?

To network through associations—realtor and home-builder organizations. Send hand written notes to people. Those little notes go a long way toward separating from competitors.

Answer the phone. I can’t tell you how often Realtors and builders don’t get their calls returned. Be aggressive. Also, be involved in the local home builders’ association and Realtor board. Go to the meetings they have. Do what you say you will do; don’t over promise. Be honest, be yourself and follow through. Treat [borrowers] the way you would want to be treated. Originators need to treat borrowers like they are your mothers, fathers and brothers. Be real, be your self. Borrowers can feel that.

What about for a new originator?

Again, be yourself and treat people like family. When someone calls, call them right back. The industry is so stressful, that if you do those things, you can differentiate yourself. Treat people how you want to be treated. Participate in local organizations, be yourself. I really believe what comes around, goes around. Above all, hard work pays off.

Early on in an originator’s career attending a closing is very big. It helps build the relationship with the referring agent and gets the originator in front of other agents he can get referrals from.

Once a new broker becomes more successful, they won’t be able to go to closings. But they could hire a team member to attend closings and participate in social media. That makes clients feel appreciated. They are people, not a TV; borrowers are buying a home for their families.

You recently made the decision to join New American Funding. What were the factors in that decision?

New American services all of their loans, so borrowers don’t feel they are being dumped. I’m thrilled to be here because it means I can provide guidance to them for a lifetime. I’m able to provide financial advice—even if it means telling them that the purchase of a property is not in their best interest. New American operates with a sense of urgency, and not with 'we’ll get back to you in 24 hours with an answer to a borrower’s question.' New American is focused on the client.

What kind of year do you anticipate 2019 to be for the mortgage industry?

2019 will be a good year for real estate. Rates are going down and apps have increased. The first quarter will be good. Be consistent and do the things I discussed earlier. The mortgage industry will do great next year.

[caption id="attachment_8430" align="alignleft" width="250"] George: UpIt makes homes more affordable for consumers[/caption]

CMG Financial, a privately-held mortgage banking organization, has launched the UpIt feature for its digital-down-payment platform, HomeFundIt.

In addition to crowdfunding with HomeFundIt, home buyers can now grow their down payment when they, or a participant in their network, shops at participating UpIt retail partners. When shoppers make a purchase with an UpIt retail partner, a percentage will be pledged toward the associated campaign. HomeFundIt users have the option to crowdfund, shop with an UpIt partner, or do both to save for a down payment.

“HomeFundIt was founded on the principle that buying a home is a community event. UpIt brings that idea to the next level by creating another innovative pathway to homeownership. Shoppers can support the campaigns of friends and family or choose to support campaigns they find compelling,” said Christopher George, founder, president, and CEO of CMG Financial. “This addition is making homeownership more accessible in the markets we serve and that potential increases as we continue to add retailers to the platform.”

To launch UpIt, home buyers first sign up with HomeFundIt online and build a campaign page. Once the campaign is active, a network of shoppers can contribute to the campaign by selecting a retail partner from the UpIt store and making a purchase. To use the feature, prospective home buyers can get started immediately. In addition, the UpIt feature does not have a time limit within which the funds must be used.

It’s designed to function as a home saving account for an active home buyer, someone repairing their credit, or a college student looking to buy within a few years. If the home buyer intends to use UpIt in conjunction with crowdfunding, they need to get prequalified for mortgage financing before raising funds. Among the retail partners are Smart Home, Gabriel New York and Sonos.