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Baby Boomers Boosting Builders' Confidence

The appeal of new homes to baby boomers and older buyers hasn't gone unnoticed by builders.

To be sure, builder confidence in the single-family housing market for borrowers older than 55 remained strong in the fourth quarter of 2018 with a reading of 66, up six points compared to the third quarter, according to the National Association of Home Builders' 55+ Housing Market Index.

The index measures two segments of the market: Single-family homes and multifamily condominiums. Each segment was designed to capture builder sentiment based on a survey that asks if current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for that market are good, fair or poor (high, average or low for traffic).

"Overall, builders and developers in the 55 plus housing market are reporting strong demand across the country,” said Chuck Ellison, chairman of NAHB's 55+ Housing Industry Council. “However, builders need to continue to manage rising construction costs to keep homes in 55 plus communities at affordable price points." Ellison is also the vice president of land of Miller & Smith in McLean, Va.

All three index components of the 55 plus single-family index posted increases from the previous quarter: Present sales rose six points to 72, expected sales for the next six months increased five points to 70 and traffic of prospective buyers jumped 10 points to 53.

The 55 plus multifamily condo HMI posted a gain of three points to 47. The index component for present sales increased three points to 51, expected sales for the next six months fell four points to 49 and traffic of prospective buyers rose seven points to 38.

Two of the four components of the 55 plus multifamily rental market went up from the third quarter: present production increased six points to 60 and present demand for existing units rose four points to 67. Future expected production and future expected demand both fell two points to 54 and 62, respectively.

"Like the broader housing market, the 55 plus HMI is benefitting from the recent decline in mortgage rates," said Robert Dietz, chief economist for the NAHB. "Favorable demographics and solid home owner wealth should continue to support demand for new 55 plus housing."

 

 

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Better Mortgage Receives $70M Capital Infusion

Better Mortgage has closed a $70 million funding round from American Express Ventures, the Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan, as well as existing investors Kleiner Perkins, Goldman Sachs, and Pine Brook. The new capital will support expansion and enhancements to its technology platform.

Better doubled operates in half of the states in the U.S. and originated $1.3B in mortgages in 2018, representing an approximate 300 percent increase from the prior year.

"Buying a home is one of the biggest financial life events that our customers experience, but the process is often full of pain points," said Lindsay Fitzgerald, managing director of Amex Ventures, the strategic investment group of American Express. "By building a mortgage platform to be fully digital from the ground up, Better Mortgage has reduced the complexity around the homebuying process. We're excited to support the next phase of growth."

Better will continue its expansion in 2019 with new technology investment, employee growth, and development of partnership channels. Since launching in January 2016, Better has funded more than $2 billion in loans, helping over 7,000 Americans buy or refinance their home.

It employs non-commissioned loan officers that put service over sales, lowering the costs of homeownership. Better is a direct lender that took the mortgage process online, digitizing and removing  inefficient aspects of the process. With

 

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25% of Home Searchers Plan to Switch Cities: Redfin

Twenty-five percent of home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the fourth quarter of 2018, up from 23 percent the year before, according to the migration report from Redfin.

The national share of home searchers looking to relocate has been increasing since Redfin began reporting on migration in early 2017 and now sits at its highest level on record. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 1 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 87 metro areas from October through December.

 San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C. and Denver posted the highest net outflows in the fourth quarter. Net outflow is defined as the number of people looking to leave the metro minus the number of people looking to move in to the metro. A net outflow means there are more people looking to leave the area than people looking to move in, while a net inflow means more people are looking to move in than leave.

Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations
Rank Metro* Net
Outflow
Net
Outflow
Last Year
Portion of
Local Users
Searching
Elsewhere
Portion of
Local Users
Searching
Elsewhere
Last Year
Top
Destination
Top Out-of-
State
Destination
1 San Francisco, CA 29,122 17,168 23.8% 18.9% Sacramento, CA Seattle, WA
2 New York, NY 22,002 15,474 34.7% 33.5% Boston, MA Boston, MA
3 Los Angeles, CA 14,647 14,240 16.6% 15.5% San Diego, CA Phoenix, AZ
4 Washington, DC 5,527 4,443 10.7% 9.9% New York, NY New York, NY
5 Denver, CO 2,577 -20 23.8% 17.4% Seattle, WA Seattle, WA
6 Chicago, IL 2,535 1,786 9.4% 8.3% Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA
7 Milwaukee, WI 694 247 38.5% 36.9% Chicago Chicago, IL
8 Orlando, FL 608 -233 46.9% 35.0% Miami, FL Washington, DC
9 Houston, TX 437 376 26.5% 24.2% Austin, TX Los Angeles, CA
10 Rockford, IL 324 N/A Chicago, IL Madison, WI
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2018

ꝉAmong the one million users sampled for this analysis only

 In San Francisco, New York, Denver and Washington, D.C., outflows were up dramatically from a year earlier. Of all San Francisco Bay Area residents using Redfin, 24 percent were searching for homes in another metro, up from 19 percent during the same time period a year earlier.

Denver made the biggest move up the list from a year earlier, flipping from modest net inflows and outflows throughout 2017 to strong net outflows through late 2018. Last quarter, 24 percent of Denverites on Redfin.com searched for homes outside the area, up from 17 percent a year earlier.

 Seattle's net inflow surged to make it the fifth-most popular migration destination  in the fourth quarter, behind nearby Portland and the relatively affordable metros Sacramento, Phoenix and Atlanta--that have long dominated this list.

Although the number of home sales in Seattle was sharply declining at the end of the year (down 22 percent in December), search interest is still high. Washington State's lack of an income tax may be helping Seattle to continue attracting people, as new tax policies enacted just over a year ago favor areas where homebuyers can avoid hitting the $10,000 SALT cap.

"In both Seattle and Denver prices were growing rapidly in 2017 and early 2018 to the point that buyers backed off in the second half of 2018," said Redfin's chief economist Daryl Fairweather. "However, people looking to leave high-tax metros for a city with mountain views and top-notch hiking are more likely to pick Seattle over Denver because Washington State doesn't have an income tax. In fact, the top destination for Denverites looking to leave is Seattle."

 

Table: Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins
Rank Metro* Net
Inflow
Net Inflow
Last Year
Portion of
Searches
from Users
Outside the
Metro
Portion of
Searches
from Users
Outside the
Metro Last
Year
Top Origin Top Out-of-
State Origin
1 Sacramento, CA 5,879 4,586 42.1% 21.9% San Francisco, CA Seattle, WA
2 Phoenix, AZ 5,287 3,549 33.1% 16.4% Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA
3 Atlanta, GA 4,658 3,097 26.8% 10.2% New York, NY New York, NY
4 Portland, OR 4,057 1,700 20.1% 11.9% San Francisco, CA San Francisco, CA
5 Seattle, WA 3,638 -146 13.8% 11.0% San Francisco, CA San Francisco, CA
6 Las Vegas, NV 3,181 3,583 42.0% 23.5% Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA
7 San Diego, CA 3,120 3,776 25.0% 19.7% Los Angeles, CA Seattle, WA
8 Austin, TX 2,982 1,609 29.3% 14.4% San Francisco, CA San Francisco, CA
9 Miami, FL 2,893 1,105 28.5% 15.2% Orlando, FL New York, NY
10 Dallas, TX 2,824 2,074 24.1% 12.3% Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles, CA
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in Q4 2018

ꝉNegative values indicate a net outflow; among the one million users sampled for this analysis only

 

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Otting Asked to Explain Administration's GSE Plans

What has Joseph Otting, acting director of the FHFA, included in the plan for removing the government sponsored enterprises from conservatorship and how will it affect underserved communities?

Concerned that he will take that step without their input, much less take the time to explain what’s planned, Rep. Maxine Waters, D-CA. and chairwoman of the House Financial Services Committee, and Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-OH, ranking member of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, sent Otting a letter:

[caption id="attachment_9329" align="alignright" width="237"] Sherrod Brown[/caption]

“In an interview on Jan. 10, 2019, you stated that there was ‘a clear mission that’s outlined by the Treasury and the White House, what they want to accomplish’ at FHFA and indicated that you would pursue that mission in your new role. It has also been reported that you told FHFA employees that you would soon announce a plan to move Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of conservatorship. To date, we have not seen a comprehensive statement from the White House and Treasury Department under the Trump Administration providing their views on regulation of the housing finance system.”

Waters and Brown are worried about how the Trump Administration plan would affect communities that have been underserved in the past. That’s because recent legislation requires the GSEs to serve these communities and for the FHFA to monitor their compliance with them.

They articulated their concerns on this issue as follows:

“The enterprises’ activities are especially impactful in traditionally underserved parts of the market, including low- and moderate-income households, rural areas, affordable rental housing, and manufactured housing. In the two most recently enacted bills to strengthen oversight of the Enterprises, Congress expressed bipartisan support for the enterprises’ continued and expanded role in serving underserved markets. To ensure that the enterprises fulfilled this duty, Congress directed their regulator, FHFA, to monitor and enforce the Enterprises’ activity across each of these market segments.”

Otting also serves as Comptroller of the Currency.

 

 

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