The number of single-family homes and condos that were flipped fell to 45,901 in the third quarter of 2018, down 12 percent compared with a year ago, and the lowest level since the first quarter of 2015. Homes that were flipped in third quarter represented 5.0 percent of all single-family home and condo sales during the quarter, down from a 5.2 percent rate in the previous quarter, and from 5.1 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the Q3 2018 U.S. Home Flipping Report from Attom Data Solutions.
"Home flipping acts as a canary in the coal mine for a cooling housing market because the high velocity of transactions provides home flippers with some of the best and most real-time data on how the market is trending," said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. "We've now seen three consecutive quarters with year-over-year decreases in home flips. The last time that happened was in 2014 following the mortgage rate jump in the second half of 2013, but it's still far from the 11 consecutive quarters with year-over-year decreases in home flips extending from Q2 2006 through Q4 2008 and leading up to the last housing crash."
Average home flipping returns drop to 6.5-year low
Homes flipped in Q3 2018 sold for an average of $63,000 more than what the home flipper purchased them for, down from an all-time high average gross flipping profit of $68,000 in the first quarter and down from an average gross flipping profit of $65,000 a year ago to the lowest level since Q2 2016.
The average gross flipping profit of $63,000 in Q3 2018 represented an average 42.6 percent gross flipping return on investment, down from an average 44.1 percent gross flipping ROI in the previous quarter and down from an average 48.1 percent gross flipping ROI in Q3 2017 to the lowest level since Q1 2012 — a 6.5-year low.
Nearly one-third of home flips sold for $100,000 to $200,000
The share of homes flipped that were sold by the home flipper between $100,000 to $200,000 made up 31.6 percent of all transactions, while those flip sales that occurred on homes sold for more than $5 million saw the highest gross flipping return on investment of any price range.
Q3 2018 Flipped Homes (By Price) |
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Sales Price Range | Share of Total Home Flips | Gross ROI |
Under $50K | 6.3% | 20% |
$50K - $100K | 9.3% | 50% |
$100K - $200K | 31.6% | 55% |
$200K - $300K | 24.8% | 39% |
$300K - $400K | 12.1% | 31% |
$400K - $500K | 6.0% | 30% |
$500K - $750K | 6.2% | 27% |
$750K - $1M | 1.8% | 26% |
$1M - $2M | 1.6% | 28% |
$2M - $5M | 0.3% | 43% |
Over $5M | 0.1% | 187% |