The buying and technology preferences of borrowers will change the way mortgage originators conduct business.
Technology will drive the industry and make it more efficient for borrowers and renters, over the next five to 10 years, and place information at their disposal, in an almost instantaneous manner. The high cost of originations, and changing expectations of borrowers, will bring radical changes in the way originators do their jobs and reduce their compensation levels, sources said.
An originator will have access to automated ordering of verification of employment, income and assets--and more data and analytics with a push of a button than has ever been available to them. That will be a radical shift in the way technology is employed and in how people get a mortgage. Paper will give way to web-based processes, and the process will be more digital and seamless.
“My children will take a picture of the house they are interested in with their cell phone, provide the [global positioning satellite] coordinates, and send that off to someone ready to provide financing,” said Timothy Mayopoulos, former chief executive officer at Fannie Mae, speaking on the “Doing Business with the GSEs” at the MBA’s Annual Conference.
The home purchase will remain the largest purchase many people will make in their life times, and they will want to work with a trusted realtor or originator--but ones that make communication possible through technology. The purchase of a house will change because millennials are looking for a buying experience that’s as identical as possible to the interactions they’ve had with Google and Amazon--and that “won’t be anything different from that experience,” said Mayopoulos.
Millennials are the largest generation in U.S. history, and while they desire to buy homes, they want to do so with more technology than have past generation of homebuyers. That means “housing that will be as nimble and agile as consumers need,” he said.
The change in the origination side of the business could be similar to the experience of the travel industry. For instance, there was a time when travel agents were relied on for vacation information 100 percent, because they were the only ones that had that information. But that is no longer the case.
Now, access to travel information is available through the internet. For specialized needs, high-end travelers, or the difficult ones, travelers will use a travel agent. But for the most part, “they are comfortable making their travel plans without the assistance of a travel agent,” said Ken Bates, branch manager of Military Home Loans, a division of American Pacific Mortgage.
With information available online about realtors, mortgage brokers, even houses in their price ranges--just a keystroke or two away--borrowers will do much of their own research. That includes researching properties through Zillow, shop for a realtor and educate themselves on mortgages and the mortgage process. That information had been the private domain of originators, but no longer, which means they will earn less money.
Although they have the information to make a buying decision, one difference with a travel agent is that they will want some guidance to get them through the process. For large loans, for example, a $600,000 mortgage, borrowers will want someone to look in the eye. They don’t want to make a mistake.”If they make a mistake on a $40,0000 car, that hurts,” said Bates. “But if they make a mistake on a $600,000 mortgage that can be devastating to the borrower.
But there are simply too many originators for too few loans. The industry will go through a massive downsizing; and it’s possible that a quarter of us won’t be in the business a year from now,” said Bates.