Mortgage delinquencies reported a double-digit increase,13 percent, but it’s just a temporary blip, and delinquencies will continue to decline.

“This is a blip, not a long-term trend. The industry is heading into a seasonal rise in the fall, and a drop in the spring. The increase was not credit driven,” said Andy Walden, director of market research at Black Knight.

Three factors drove the increase: First, the last day of the month fell on a Sunday, so there was no one in the servicing shops to process payments.

The previous three times the last day of September (2001, 2007 and 2012) fell on a Sunday—delinquencies average 13.2 percent--consistent with the 13 percent delinquency rate recorded in September. That’s the largest single-month increase since November 2008.

Second, September is a month when borrowers are paying tuition bills, or other large bills, and some borrowers don’t have the funds so they miss their mortgage payment.

And the statistics bear that out.

Fully 16 of the last 19 Septembers have seen delinquencies increase, averaging a 5.2 percent rise over that time frame, the largest of any month during the calendar year.

Delinquency rates for borrowers will continue to increase in October, since borrowers will not be focused on paying their mortgage, but will be working on fixing their homes, noted Walden. The forbearance programs that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac offered in the wake of the hurricane will help borrowers, but participants in those programs will still be recorded as delinquent for purposes of Black Knight’s statistics.

Third, the Hurricane Florence was a factor, but a small one compared with the first two forces. Fully 6,000 borrowers, or 2.5 percent, of the increase. However, in September delinquencies increased 38 percent compared with the previous month.