The composite S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices rate rose one basis point from last month to 0.90 percent.

The bank card default rate rose eight basis points to 3.42%. The auto-loan default rate fell four basis points to 0.99%. The first mortgage default rate was two-basis points higher at 0.69%. The indices represent a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults.

Three of the major metropolitan statistical areas showed higher default rates compared to last month. The rate for Miami increased 26 basis points to 2.19 percent while the rate for Dallas rose four-basis points to 0.89 percent. The default rate for New York was up three-basis points to 0.99 percent. The rate for Chicago was unchanged at 0.88 percent, while the rate for Los Angeles decreased three-basis points to 0.49 percent.

S&P/Experian Consumer Default Composite Indices (by MSA)

Following a month where default rates for all loan types increased, the January 2019 data shows default rates little changed from the prior month. The longer-term trend shows that default rates have stabilized. The composite rate has fluctuated within a narrow band, and the last time this rate was more than 10 basis points off of the current level was nearly four years ago in March 2015.

The table below summarizes the January 2019 results for the S&P/Experian Credit Default Indices (non-seasonally adjusted)

“Despite continuing uncertainty about economic policy, two factors favorable to the economy persist: low inflation and a strong labor market," said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "These trends should support the economy and limit any increase in consumer credit default rates. The risks facing the economy in the first half of 2019 are in trade where tariffs or Brexit could upset things, and in the financial sector where worries about corporate earnings and anxiety of possible Fed rate hikes could spook the markets.”