Hundreds of thousands of coastal homeowners could feel the devastation of rising seas from climate change within just three decades.

Some 386,000 homes today are likely to be at risk of regular flooding by 2050 because of sea-level rise from climate change, under a scenario of unchecked greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new analysis by Zillow and Climate Central. Moderate emissions cuts would reduce that number by about 10 percent. The effects vary locally: Homes in some communities would likely be largely unaffected by midcentury while those in Texas and the Northeast, for example--could suffer far greater flood threats.

Moderate emissions cuts could reduce the number of current homes in at-risk areas to 348,000 by 2050. Because the effects of climate change will worsen over time, the estimates for the year 2100 are far higher: 1.3 million current homes are anticipated to be at risk of regular flooding if emissions are cut moderately, and 2.5 million homes—worth $1.3 trillion—if emissions grow unchecked. As sea levels rise, the intermittent floods that coastal communities now experience on average once a year are projected to reach farther inland than they do today.

Those floods can damage and devalue homes, degrade infrastructure, wash out beaches and more. They also put homeowners, renters and investors in danger of steep personal and financial losses. "This research suggests that the impact of climate change on the lives and pocketbooks of homeowners is closer than you think. For home buyers over the next few years, the impact of climate change will be felt within the span of their 30-year mortgage," said Skylar Olsen, director of economic research and outreach for Zillow.  "Without intervention, hundreds of thousands of coastal homes will experience regular flooding and the damage will cost billions."

Coastal communities will encounter the effects of sea level rise to greatly varying degrees, depending on the local rate of rise, local tides and storms, the potential future development of coastal defenses, the flatness of the landscape and where homes are built within it. Some major coastal cities—including Los Angeles—sit high enough above sea level that the biggest hit, even as far out as 2100, will be to their beaches.

Others will suffer more far-reaching and damaging effects. About 10 percent of homes in Galveston, Texas, and seven percent in Ocean City, Md., are projected to be at risk of at least annual flooding by 2050. By the same year, Hoboken, N.J., and Miami Beach, Fla., could see three-quarters or more of their homes at risk of at least annual flooding, if emissions remain unchecked.

In addition, new homes are still being built at striking rates in areas that face high risks of future flooding. In New Jersey, for example, seven percent of current homes are projected to be in flood-risk zones by 2100, under moderate emissions cuts. But because of ongoing development, 14 percent of the state's homes built from 2010 to 2017 are in the same high-risk areas.

"The combination of Zillow's data with Climate Central's coastal analysis has given us our most detailed picture yet of U.S. homes at risk from rising seas," said Benjamin Strauss, CEO and chief scientist of Climate Central. "And we have discovered that many communities are growing faster in areas facing chronic future floods than they are in higher areas. It's difficult to plan for higher seas if you are busy digging deeper holes."

[caption id="attachment_7663" align="alignleft" width="150"] Kathleen Kraninger[/caption]

The National Association of Realtors and over 20 trade groups from across the real estate industry, have sent a letter to Senate leadership and the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs urging confirmation of Kathleen Kraninger as director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

The Senate is expected to consider Kraninger's nomination before the end of 2018. Groups joining the National Association of Realtors include the National Association of Home Builders, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the Housing Policy Council.

"In addition to her time leading the Office of Management and Budget, Kathy Kraninger has decades of experience on Capitol Hill and with previous presidential administrations,” said Shannon McGahn, senior vice president of government affairs for NAR. “As director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the National Association of Realtors is confident Kraninger will prioritize the protection of consumers' financial interests while eyeing necessary and critical reforms of the Bureau's examination, enforcement, and rule making processes."

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NAR and the coalition of nearly two dozen associations have urged the Senate to confirm her as director.

" Kraninger previous positions in government demonstrate her approach to managing an agency that has significant impact on the daily lives of Americans and the U.S. economy," the letter reads. "Her background in government service with the Office of Management and Budget, Department of Homeland Security, and the Senate Appropriations Committee, gives her a strong understanding of the role of government and the need for increased transparency at the Bureau."

The National Association of Realtors is America's largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Bankers are worried about the effect of a Democratic takeover of the House.

Seventy-three percent of respondents saw a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives to be a serious concern for their bank, according to the Bank Executive Business Outlook Survey from the Promontory Interfinancial Network.

Other findings from the survey demonstrate:

• Seventy-three percent of respondents saw a Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives to be a serious concern for their bank. Asked to rate their level of concern on a scale of 1-5 (5 being the highest level of concern), 41% chose a rating of 5 and another 32% gave a rating of 4.
• Despite growing market turbulence, almost eight in 10 respondents (78%) see Wall Street’s bull market continuing until at least the second half of 2019.
• A majority of respondents (65%) have some level of confidence in the U.S. regulatory system’s ability to manage a future crisis on par with 2008’s financial crisis. Larger community banks (banks with assets between $1 and $10 billion) expressed a higher level of confidence than smaller community banks (banks with assets of less than $1 billion).

The survey showed some interesting regional differences.

On the question of how big of a concern the Democrats taking control of the House was to community banks, the strongest level of concern was found among respondents in the South and the West (with 84% and 75%, respectively, rating their level of concern as a 4 or a 5), closely followed by the Midwest (72%). The rating scale runs from 1-5, with 5 being the highest level of concern

Bankers in the Northeast were the least concerned with only 50% rating their level of concern as a 4 or a 5. Bank size also factored in responses; 75% of smaller community banks (less than $1 billion in assets) said they had serious concerns about a Democratic takeover of the House, compared to larger community banks (banks with $1 billion to $10 billion in assets) of which 60% of respondents rated their level of concern as a 4 or a 5.

Turning to other questions, banker views on how overall economic conditions affected their business in the previous 12 months remained mostly positive from last quarter’s report. But when looking ahead, bankers were less bullish on continued improvements—those who expect conditions to improve dropped by seven percentage points, while those who expect conditions to stay the same increased by seven percentage points.

“Bankers continue to hold a cautious view of future overall economic conditions, despite continued positive economic news,” said Mark Jacobsen, cofounder and CEO of Promontory Interfinancial Network.

On the metrics that make up Promontory Interfinancial Network’s proprietary Bank Experience Index (access to capital, loan demand, funding costs, and deposit competition now compared to 12 months ago), the survey results showed a negligible half-point increase from the second quarter (to 46.2).

According to the forward-looking Bank Confidence Index (access to capital, loan demand, funding costs, and deposit competition expectations for 12 months from now), the survey results showed a significant 1.4-point drop from last quarter, bringing the Bank Confidence Index to its lowest level recorded (43.5) since its inception in 2015. (Charted on a scale of 0-100, a score of 50 represents the baseline expectation.)

Regional differences on several “look-back” measures (experience) were noteworthy. Community banks in the Northeast and South saw a significant increase (15 and 18 percentage points, respectively) from the second quarter on the question of improved access to capital. At the same time, 33% of banks in the Northeast reported a decrease in loan demand—the most of any region and an 11-point increase over last quarter.

There were some variations on expectations for the future as well, especially when it comes to bank size and region. Among community banks with $1 billion-$10 billion in assets, the survey results showed a 17-point drop since Q2 in expectation for increased loan demand over the next 12 months. The results also showed a 12-point drop (from Q2) in the percentage of Northeast banks foreseeing an increase in deposit competition 12 months down the road.

More than 3,000 financial institutions participate in the Promontory Interfinancial Network’s balance sheet and liquidity management solutions to acquire and retain large-dollar customer relationships, purchase funding, reduce collateralization costs as well as buy and sell bank assets.