WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 18, 2022) – The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for September 2022 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 13.2 percent compared from a year ago. Compared to August 2022, applications decreased by 7 percent. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.

MBA estimates new single-family home sales, which has consistently been a leading indicator of the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales report, is that new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 637,000 units in September 2022, based on data from the BAS. The new home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors. 

“New home purchase activity declined in September as prospective homebuyers pulled back in response to higher mortgage rates, increased concern about an impeding recession, and a broader slowdown in home-price growth,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased almost a full percentage point in the last month, greatly reducing the purchasing power of many home shoppers. MBA’s estimate of new home sales declined 9 percent in September, partially reversing the 18 percent increase in August during that brief period when mortgage rates decreased.”

Added Kan, “The average loan size measured in the survey fell for the fifth consecutive month – after reaching a survey high in April 2022 – to $406,767.” 

The seasonally adjusted estimate for September is a decrease of 8.9 percent from the August pace of 699,000 units. On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates that there were 52,000 new home sales in September 2022, a decrease of 10.3 percent from 58,000 new home sales in August. 

By product type, conventional loans composed 69.8 percent of loan applications, FHA loans composed 18.7 percent, RHS/USDA loans composed 0.3 percent and VA loans composed 11.2 percent. The average loan size of new homes decreased from $415,594 in August to $406,767 in September.

MBA’s Builder Application Survey tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of home builders across the country. Utilizing this data, as well as data from other sources, MBA is able to provide an early estimate of new home sales volumes at the national, state, and metro level. This data also provides information regarding the types of loans used by new home buyers. Official new home sales estimates are conducted by the Census Bureau on a monthly basis. In that data, new home sales are recorded at contract signing, which is typically coincident with the mortgage application.  

WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 17, 2022) – The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.72% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.69% as of September 30, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 345,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 0.30%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased 1 basis point to 1.33%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) declined 12 basis points to 1.14%.

“The overall number of loans in forbearance dropped in September, but the pace of forbearance exits slowed to a new survey low and new forbearance requests continued to come in. This dynamic in turn prevented any substantial improvement in the forbearance rate,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The COVID-19 federal health emergency is still in effect and in most cases, borrowers can still seek initial COVID-19 hardship forbearance.”

Added Walsh, “In the near-term, the number of loans in forbearance will likely increase for another reason – the recent devastation caused by Hurricane Ian in Florida, South Carolina, and other states. MBA’s Loan Monitoring Survey requests that servicers report all loans in forbearance regardless of the borrower’s stated reason – whether pandemic-related, due to a natural disaster, or another cause.” 

Industry-First Capability Will Also Help Lenders Qualify More First-Time and Underserved Borrowers

McLean, Va., Oct. 17, 2022 — Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) will increase homeownership opportunities by including a review of a borrower’s bank account data to identify a history of positive monthly cash flow activity as part of its technology’s loan purchase eligibility assessments, the company announced today. This industry-first innovation will be available to mortgage lenders nationwide through Freddie Mac’s automated underwriting system, Loan Product Advisor^® (LPA^SM), beginning November 6, 2022.

“With the addition of positive monthly cash flow data, our underwriting system can help with more accurately predicting a borrower’s ability to pay their mortgage because it uses a comprehensive view of how personal finances are managed over time,” said Terri Merlino, Freddie Mac Single-Family senior vice president and chief credit officer. “Our latest innovation levels the playing field and helps make homes more accessible to borrowers whose lenders might not have qualified them with traditional methods of underwriting. This should particularly help first-time homebuyers and underserved communities.”

With the borrower’s permission, lenders and brokers can submit financial account data for LPA to identify 12 or more months of cash flow activity for inclusion in the tool’s risk assessment. Data can be obtained from checking, savings and investment accounts, including those used for direct deposit of income and monthly bill payments, such as rent, utilities and auto loans. The account data submitted can only positively affect the borrower’s credit risk assessment. To help identify opportunities, LPA will notify lenders when submitting additional account data could benefit a borrower.

Lenders and brokers can obtain the financial account data from designated third-party service providers using the same automated process they currently use to verify assets, income (using direct deposit), employment, and on-time rent payments via a single report through LPA’s asset and income modeler (AIM).

Working alongside our industry partners, we have made significant progress toward modernizing the mortgage origination process,” said Kevin Kauffman, Freddie Mac Single-Family vice president of client engagement. “In the current market, our latest industry-leading innovation delivers lender efficiencies that can lead to cost savings and improvements to the borrower experience, while meeting Freddie Mac’s strong credit underwriting standards.”

Initial service providers supporting Freddie Mac’s LPA borrower cash flow assessment include Blend, Finicity (a MasterCard company), FormFree and PointServ. Freddie Mac’s privacy policy is available online.

To learn more, visit the AIM webpage