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Delinquencies Rise 20% in May, But Increases May Be Cresting: Black Knight

Black Knight has released its First Look at May mortgage performance data.

As expected, the national delinquency rate increased substantially again (albeit at less than half the size of April’s record-breaking rise of 1.6 million). Black Knight's delinquency numbers count all homeowners who have missed payments, whether they are in forbearance plans or not.

After April’s 90% increase in the delinquency rate, another 723,000 homeowners became past due on their mortgages in May. That marks a 20% increase in the national delinquency rate, pushing it to its highest level since late 2011. There are now 4.3 million non-current homeowners (either past due or in active foreclosure), up from 2 million at the end of March.

Serious delinquencies are also on the rise with 631,000 homeowners now 90 or more days past due. Serious delinquencies are up more than 50% over the past two months.

However, Black Knight's McDash Flash Payment Tracker, which tracks mortgage payments on a daily basis, shows that a higher share of June payments have been made so far than at the same time in May, suggesting the rise in delinquencies may be leveling off.

That said, the share of homeowners in forbearance who are making mortgage payments continues to decline. In April, 46% had remitted their April mortgage payments. By the end of May, that number had fallen to 28%. As of June 15, just 15% had made their June payment.

COVID-19 foreclosure moratoriums have kept both foreclosure starts and completions at record lows. In fact, the share of homeowners in active foreclosure is the lowest it’s been since we started reporting the metric more than 20 years ago. And finally, prepayment activity ticked down slightly from April, but with 30-year rates at record lows, the potential exists for increased prepayments by way of both refinances and purchases.

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