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MBA Forecast: Commercial/Multifamily Lending to Climb 9% to $683B in 2020

Commercial and multifamily mortgage bankers are expected to close a record $683 billion of loans backed by income-producing properties in 2020, a 9% increase from 2019’s anticipated record volume of $628 billion, according to a new forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

Total multifamily lending alone, which includes some loans made by small and midsize banks not captured in the overall total, is forecast to rise 9% to $395 billion in 2020, surpassing last year’s expected record total of $364 billion. MBA anticipates volumes will plateau in 2021, falling slightly to $660 billion in commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers originations and $392 billion in total multifamily lending.

“Commercial and multifamily real estate markets got a shot in the arm from low interest rates in 2019,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President for Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Research. “In addition to making mortgage borrowing less expensive, lower yields on a broad array of investment options are buoying the values of industrial, apartment, office, retail and other income-producing properties. This increase in property values is expected to translate into increased sales transactions and demand for mortgage debt in 2020.”

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